Archives

ARCHIVES

The BCFA Archive dates back to February 2022. Our archives allow members to study information preceding the most recent reports in order to gain full understanding regardless of their current familiarity with the topic of interest.

Article Highlight: The Rugged Road to Democracy in Belarus

By Amy Graham, from the Center for European Policy Analysis August 14, 2025 Five years on from a fraudulent election organized by the Lukashenka dictatorship, Belarus’s best-known opposition leader-in-exile believes there’s still hope. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition candidate in the 2020 presidential election, wants to emphasize that the August anniversary marks more

Read More »

Russian Ministry of Defense: up to 1,270 Ukrainian casualties in the past day

Russian Defence Ministry on progress of special military operation as of 21 August 2025  Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons as well as drones against enterprises of the Ukrainian defence industry and power facilities that supported their operation, military airfield infrastructure,

Read More »

Ukrainian General Staff:  about 920 Russian casualties in the past day

The estimated total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 20.08.25: personnel: about 1 072 700 (+920) personstanks: 11 119 (+1)troop-carrying AFVs: 23 152 (+4)artillery systems: 31 748 (+50)MLRS: 1 470 (+0)anti-aircraft systems: 1 208 (+0)aircraft: 422 (+0)helicopters: 340 (+0)UAVs operational-tactical level: 52 154 (+260)cruise missiles: 3 565 (+7)warships/boats:

Read More »

Ukrainian General Staff:  about 920 Russian casualties in the past day

The estimated total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 20.08.25: personnel: about 1 072 700 (+920) personstanks: 11 119 (+1)troop-carrying AFVs: 23 152 (+4)artillery systems: 31 748 (+50)MLRS: 1 470 (+0)anti-aircraft systems: 1 208 (+0)aircraft: 422 (+0)helicopters: 340 (+0)UAVs operational-tactical level: 52 154 (+260)cruise missiles: 3 565 (+7)warships/boats:

Read More »

The Hudson Institute: Ukraine reinforces defense of Pokrovsk, attacks Russian oil refinery

Ukraine Military Situation Report | August 20 Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the Russia-Ukraine War. Executive Summary — Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign: Ukraine struck the Volgograd refinery, which produces almost 5 percent of Russia’s oil output. The strike forced the facility to halt operations. — Battlefield assessment: The Ukrainian military rushed

Read More »

August 21, 2025

Article Highlight: The Rugged Road to Democracy in Belarus

By Amy Graham, from the Center for European Policy Analysis

August 14, 2025

Five years on from a fraudulent election organized by the Lukashenka dictatorship, Belarus’s best-known opposition leader-in-exile believes there’s still hope.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition candidate in the 2020 presidential election, wants to emphasize that the August anniversary marks more than the theft of a popular vote; it is also the five-year anniversary of Belarus’ peaceful, popular uprising. Following the announcement of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s victory, and Tsikhanouskaya’s widely supported declaration that it was falsified, the largest demonstrations in Belarusian history erupted nationwide. More than 65,000 people were jailed, and many protesters were beaten.

The outlook, since then, has been bleak — Lukashenka is now an even closer ally of Vladimir Putin and supports his invasion of Ukraine, among other things by providing military bases and prisoner-of-war camps. Belarusians live under repression and in fear, and dissenters are rounded up every day.

But all is not lost, and Tsikhanouskaya described a possible path forward. The Belarusian opposition continues to work in exile and hopes to keep resistance alive. Belarus will need help from the outside, she says, and continued US and European Union (EU) support remains critical.

“The aspirations that people showed five years ago when they wanted democracy, freedom, a different political course for their country — this has not expired,” said Katia Glod, an independent analyst and political risk consultant.

The opposition also seeks to emphasize that aiding democratic efforts in Belarus fit into a broader regional policy of opposing the Kremlin’s imperial expansionism. “Belarus isn’t always on the top of the agenda, but as long as it remains under Putin and Lukashenka, it will always be a threat to Ukraine, NATO, and regional stability,” said Tsikhanouskaya. A long-term hope for Belarusian democratization is that it could incite a similar movement in Russia.

Western allies ought to turn up the heart on the Lukashenka regime instead of engaging him, according to the 42 year-old former teacher. “For years, the West tried to play with the Lukashenka regime, which only emboldened him.” Belarus’s opposition has gained diplomatic ground, though, developing formalized relationships with the EU, Canada, and the UK, and maintaining a strategic dialogue with the US.

The opposition hopes allies can help push change in Belarus by adopting a more assertive policy, including options such as sanctions, political isolation, or non-recognition. Tsikhanouskaya also suggested the appointment of a US special envoy to Belarus similar to retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who serves as the special envoy to Ukraine and Russia.

Link to article: https://cepa.org/article/the-rugged-road-to-democracy-in-belarus/

Share the Post:

Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

At the heart of this crisis are the political triggers. Armed conflicts, ethnic or religious persecutions, and systemic human rights abuses force millions to flee their homes in terror. Many are displaced within their own national boundaries, while others seek asylum abroad. If these factors change as a result of political shifts at home or the pressures from abroad, they can return to their homes. Forced displacement is thus different from environmentally driven displacement, as victims of climate change may never be able to return to their homes.

The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.