By Amy Graham, from the Center for European Policy Analysis
Five years on from a fraudulent election organized by the Lukashenka dictatorship, Belarus’s best-known opposition leader-in-exile believes there’s still hope.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition candidate in the 2020 presidential election, wants to emphasize that the August anniversary marks more than the theft of a popular vote; it is also the five-year anniversary of Belarus’ peaceful, popular uprising. Following the announcement of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s victory, and Tsikhanouskaya’s widely supported declaration that it was falsified, the largest demonstrations in Belarusian history erupted nationwide. More than 65,000 people were jailed, and many protesters were beaten.
The outlook, since then, has been bleak — Lukashenka is now an even closer ally of Vladimir Putin and supports his invasion of Ukraine, among other things by providing military bases and prisoner-of-war camps. Belarusians live under repression and in fear, and dissenters are rounded up every day.
But all is not lost, and Tsikhanouskaya described a possible path forward. The Belarusian opposition continues to work in exile and hopes to keep resistance alive. Belarus will need help from the outside, she says, and continued US and European Union (EU) support remains critical.
“The aspirations that people showed five years ago when they wanted democracy, freedom, a different political course for their country — this has not expired,” said Katia Glod, an independent analyst and political risk consultant.
The opposition also seeks to emphasize that aiding democratic efforts in Belarus fit into a broader regional policy of opposing the Kremlin’s imperial expansionism. “Belarus isn’t always on the top of the agenda, but as long as it remains under Putin and Lukashenka, it will always be a threat to Ukraine, NATO, and regional stability,” said Tsikhanouskaya. A long-term hope for Belarusian democratization is that it could incite a similar movement in Russia.
Western allies ought to turn up the heart on the Lukashenka regime instead of engaging him, according to the 42 year-old former teacher. “For years, the West tried to play with the Lukashenka regime, which only emboldened him.” Belarus’s opposition has gained diplomatic ground, though, developing formalized relationships with the EU, Canada, and the UK, and maintaining a strategic dialogue with the US.
The opposition hopes allies can help push change in Belarus by adopting a more assertive policy, including options such as sanctions, political isolation, or non-recognition. Tsikhanouskaya also suggested the appointment of a US special envoy to Belarus similar to retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who serves as the special envoy to Ukraine and Russia.